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Author Topic: The Islam in Europe Thread  (Read 75015 times)

Sang

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2007, 03:03:24 AM »
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in the year 2025, Christians will comprise about 35% of the total population

I dunno, that seems like a high number. The amount of Christians seems to be dropping rather rapidly (in Belgium hardly everyone goes to church anymore) so in 20 years.. dunno.
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James

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2007, 03:11:50 AM »
Quote
in the year 2025, Christians will comprise about 35% of the total population
I dunno, that seems like a high number. The amount of Christians seems to be dropping rather rapidly (in Belgium hardly everyone goes to church anymore) so in 20 years.. dunno.
I'm sure that number factors in non-practising Christians as well (ie ones that don't go to Church basically)
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Trooper Dan

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2007, 03:16:22 AM »
Quote
in the year 2025, Christians will comprise about 35% of the total population
I dunno, that seems like a high number. The amount of Christians seems to be dropping rather rapidly (in Belgium hardly everyone goes to church anymore) so in 20 years.. dunno.
I'm sure that number factors in non-practising Christians as well (ie ones that don't go to Church basically)

It also factors in people who, uh, aren't from Belgium  :mellow:
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KaiseR

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2007, 03:26:22 AM »
Here is a link to a population projection that is at odds with the one you cited. 

http://www.wnrf.org/cms/next200.shtml

According to this projection, in the year 2025, Christians will comprise about 35% of the total population, and Muslims about 20%.  On the face of it, this seems much more plausible, because it counts nonreligious people and other religions such as Hindu and Budhism as significant percentages of the population, which we know they are.
I must say that this sounds more realistic to me.

Quote
A more pertinant question for me is how the populations of developed nations (specifically, the U.S. and countries in Europe) will be changing during this century, and what effects that will have on our lives and the future of the world.
Indeed, but finding reliable studies on this can be quite hard. There are lots of fantasies and exaggeration.

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #19 on: October 10, 2007, 04:09:02 AM »
Fantasies and exaggeration?  Perhaps.  Would you consider this to fall into one of those categories?

http://www.afa.org/magazine/July2005/0705europe.asp

Quote
Current overall population figures hardly seem indicative of a coming cultural phase shift. According to the State Department, Europe today is home to some 23 million Muslims. That is about five percent of the Continent’s population.

These numbers, however, do not include Turkey, with its 67 million Muslims. Add Turkey to the mix and Islam’s share of the European population bumps up to 15 percent. Furthermore, European Muslims are concentrated mostly in a few nations—France, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands—and, within these states, they are further concentrated into a few urban areas. Muslims now make up more than a quarter of the population of Marseilles, for instance. They are 15 percent of Brussels and Paris, and 10 percent of Amsterdam. For the most part, they live in enclaves in poorer sections of town, such as Berlin’s Kreuzberg district.

Recruiters for radical strains of Islam find their work made easy by the poverty and prejudice many young Muslims face.

What is important, say analysts, is not so much the raw population totals but rather the demographic trends. Over the last 30 years, Europe’s Muslim population has more than doubled, and its growth rate continues to accelerate. Current projections hold that the number of Muslims living in Europe might double again by 2015.

One major reason: immigration. Upward of 900,000 legal immigrants enter Europe each year; most of them are Muslim. The same is true of for­eigners immigrating illegally into Europe, estimated to number 500,000 per year.

Immigration is only one factor in the emergence of Islamic Europe, however. In Muslim communities already there, high birth rates are the norm.

Additional pressure comes from demographic realities in nearby Islamic lands. Fouad Ajami, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, gave the relevant figures in a recent Wall Street Journal article: “Forty percent of the Arab world is under 14. Demographers tell us that the fertility replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman. Europe is frightfully below this level. ... Fertility rates in the Islamic world are ... 3.2 in Algeria, 3.4 in Egypt and Morocco, 5.2 in Iraq, and 6.1 in Saudi Arabia.”

Meanwhile, Europe’s non-Muslim population is graying and about to shrink dramatically. Low birth rates in virtually all of Europe’s nations mean the number of non-Muslims is projected to fall some 3.5 percent over the next 10 years and continue to spiral downward. According to the UN, Europe’s population will fall by more than 100 million by 2050. Ferguson, writing recently in the New York Times, noted, “There has not been such a sustained reduction in the European population since the Black Death of the 14th century.”

These trends—major Muslim immigration, high Muslim birth rates, and a shrinking traditional population—point to a steady rise in Muslims as a proportion of Europe’s people. In an influential article in the Washington Quarterly in 2004, Timothy M. Savage of the State Department’s Office of European Analysis estimated that Europe would be 20 percent Muslim by 2050.

“Some even predict that one-fourth of France’s population could be Muslim by 2025 and that, if trends continue, Muslims could outnumber non-Muslims in France and perhaps in all of western Europe by midcentury,” he pointed out.
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KaiseR

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #20 on: October 10, 2007, 05:02:07 AM »
Would you consider this to fall into one of those categories?
[snip]

Actually, no. Apart the last thing : France and Europe being mostly muslim in 2050. I think it would take more time, and in such a great time span, so much unpredictable things can happen, which can change lots of things. For example, the continent could litterally 'explode' way before muslims become a majority. Far right parties have been developing for a few years, and some could seize power.
Or, there could be major global economic changes for any reason, making Europe a not so attracting place (and actually,even now, given the unemployment rate, if I was from some 3rd world country, France would certainly not be my first choice. I'm even considering the eventuality of leaving. But that's another subject.).
Anyway, by fantasies and exaggeration, I was thinking of claims by a few paranoids saying that whole Europe would be litterally colonized by muslims and under sharia law within 2020.
20 years ago, there was a muslim extremist in France who promised the sharia would be instaured in France by the year 2000 (I forgot his name).
50/40 years ago, when my father was a kid (he told me), people lived under the constant fear of russian nukes, and were terrorized by a possible USA/USSR war, and by being in the middle.
The problem is, sometimes people seem to divide into two categories : freaked out paranoids and those who refuse to see the danger.
The world situation is certainly dangerous (and not only because of islamist terrorism), but problems are solved by reasoning and taking action, not by overdramatizing (I just made up this word, and I hope it exists in english, lol).

Trooper Dan

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #21 on: October 10, 2007, 08:49:04 AM »
The problem is, sometimes people seem to divide into two categories : freaked out paranoids and those who refuse to see the danger.
The world situation is certainly dangerous (and not only because of islamist terrorism), but problems are solved by reasoning and taking action, not by overdramatizing (I just made up this word, and I hope it exists in english, lol).

I agree. 

By the way, I don't think that terrorism is the main threat posed by Islam.  I'm not very concerned about terrorism, to tell the truth.  I'm sure there will be more terrorist attacks, maybe even one bigger than 9/11.  But unless it is nuclear, it's not going to do any more damage than ordinary crime does on a daily basis.  In my opinion, the main threat posed by Islam is cultural.  I don't believe that Islam, in the radical form that is all too common these days, is compatible with the values of western democracy.  And I do believe it is spreading.  I'm going to continue to raise the alarm about it, for anyone who will listen.  If it turns out that I am a freaked out paranoid, then I'll be happy to be proven wrong.
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KaiseR

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #22 on: October 10, 2007, 04:30:05 PM »
In my opinion, the main threat posed by Islam is cultural. I don't believe that Islam, in the radical form that is all too common these days, is compatible with the values of western democracy. And I do believe it is spreading.

Oh yes it is. Contrarily to what some people say, moderate, west-compatible islam does exist, but these guys are obviously not the problem. The problem, as you say, is the spreading of radical forms of islam.
This cultural problem is the very reason why I think the situation could very well explode way before islam become majoritary in Europe, screwing all previsions which go too far ahead. If we assume a wide spread of radical islam all over Europe, there will be BIG problems very quick (we've under 10% of muslims in Europe, most of them being moderate, and we already have problems).

Puritan

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #23 on: October 10, 2007, 06:45:30 PM »

 And I do believe it is spreading. I'm going to continue to raise the alarm about it, for anyone who will listen.If it turns out that I am a freaked out paranoid, then I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

I can assure you that there is many people around here who is concerned.
But there is no big official thing atm.
In the 'underground societies' there is a wave that is growing bigger for each week.
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Sang

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #24 on: October 10, 2007, 07:17:46 PM »
I'm sure that number factors in non-practising Christians as well (ie ones that don't go to Church basically)

Well why would you include them? People who proclaim to be of a certain religion, yet don't do jack shit but "believing" shouldn't be considered. They're basically the same as atheists (in their actions) except they say "I believe in God" instead of "I don't believe in God". Only those who actually do something for their religion should be included, and the way I see it a lot of Christians are turning into lazy bums (concerning their religion) so, I think, by 2025 there will not be a large number of TRUE Christians.

I think the religions "outside" of the Western world (ie. Islam) will be the biggest in the future.
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Trooper Dan

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #25 on: October 10, 2007, 09:41:55 PM »
I'm sure that number factors in non-practising Christians as well (ie ones that don't go to Church basically)

Well why would you include them? People who proclaim to be of a certain religion, yet don't do jack shit but "believing" shouldn't be considered. They're basically the same as atheists (in their actions) except they say "I believe in God" instead of "I don't believe in God". Only those who actually do something for their religion should be included, and the way I see it a lot of Christians are turning into lazy bums (concerning their religion) so, I think, by 2025 there will not be a large number of TRUE Christians.

I think the religions "outside" of the Western world (ie. Islam) will be the biggest in the future.

It's not often that I say this, Sang, but I think you've got a good point there.  If we apply your standard, it would probably turn out that there are more Muslims than Christians right now.  The problem is, how many there are of a certain religion is a very sensitive issue.  If we start saying that some people who call themselves Christians don't count as true Christians, then the same would have to apply to all religions, and then we would get into a big debate about what counts as a true follower of this religion or that religion.  It would be a big mess.  Instead of saying that some people don't count as true Christians (or true Muslims, etc.), we should recognize that the religions have different sects, and that they way they are practiced depends on the culture of the area.
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MSandt

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #26 on: October 10, 2007, 09:48:35 PM »
Btw, another side product of the ongoing islamization process is an increase in rape rates across Europe. I read from some official Swedish website (the Ministry of Justice?) that rapes have gone up 400% during the last ten years and that rapes are far more frequent there than in Finland (we have relatively little Muslims compared to Sweden). The same of course applies to Oslo, Paris etc. These cities are turning into Detroits, New Orleanses and Atlantas.
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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #27 on: October 10, 2007, 10:51:55 PM »
Btw, another side product of the ongoing islamization process is an increase in rape rates across Europe. I read from some official Swedish website (the Ministry of Justice?) that rapes have gone up 400% during the last ten years and that rapes are far more frequent there than in Finland (we have relatively little Muslims compared to Sweden). The same of course applies to Oslo, Paris etc. These cities are turning into Detroits, New Orleanses and Atlantas.

I remember that, too, but you should find the source of that statistic and provide a link.  I don't want this thread to become "well, I heard this" and "I heard that" -- I'm trying to build a well-documented case that will convince skeptics that there is a serious problem.
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MSandt

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #28 on: October 11, 2007, 12:27:03 AM »
Over 12,100 sex crimes were reported in 2006, which is about the same number of offences as were reported the previous year. There was an increase in the number of reported rape offences, which rose by eleven percent to around 4,200.

http://www.bra.se/extra/pod/?action=pod_show&id=14&module_instance=11

As for Finland, about 500 rapes were reported in 2005. Of these cases, foreigners were suspected in 27% despite the fact that foreigners make up only about 2% of the population. See Ulkomaalaisten rikollisuus, table 35:

http://www.optula.om.fi/36310.htm

So, rape rates in Sweden are more than seven times higher than in Finland despite the fact that the population of Sweden is barely double that of Finland.

Edit:

Rape rates in the United States: In 2006, there were an estimated 92,455 forcible rapes reported to law enforcement, a 2.0-percent decrease from the 2005 estimate.

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/offenses/violent_crime/forcible_rape.html

So, per 100 000 we get:
Finland - 10
United States - 31
Sweden - 47


More women are raped in Sweden than in the United States.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2007, 12:34:37 AM by MSandt »
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KaiseR

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Re: The Islam in Europe Thread
« Reply #29 on: October 11, 2007, 01:42:05 AM »
Well, attached is a little graphic I made, gathering data downloadable at : http://www.unodc.org/pdf/crime/eighthsurvey/5678sc.pdf (located at : http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crime_cicp_survey_eighth.html). This is published by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime.
The graphic represents the rape rates in a few countries (not including UK, because the data on it was surprisingly almost null) represented here. I also put Turkey, as an example of a muslim country.

I must say the results surprised me. But if we are to discuss this further, a new thread will probably have to be opened.

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